Grain Spreads: The Malaise Continues
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Commentary
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all started today’s trade under pressure, as did several other markets in a general risk-off attitude. Soybeans were under the most pressure as losses in the energy complex spilled over into soy oil, weighing on the entire complex. There are some noise and rumors of US grain export sales being made, but not much news for soybeans. That said, basis and spreads possibly show some soybean business is taking place. Export inspections were released this morning. This is the only gov’t report the trade will see with the government shutdown. Corn inspections came in at 44.5 million bushels, below the low estimate of 47.2 million bushels. Soybean inspections came in at 36.5 million bushels which was the top end of guesses as non- China shipments continue to be strong. NOPA crush tomorrow is expected to come in near 186.3 million bushels compared to 189.8 in August. Wheat inspections came in at 16.3 million bushels and was within the estimate range. Technically nice outside reversal in December Kansas City wheat today after making the new contract low, lot of room to the upside to the 20-day at $4.99, does look like HRW is starting to compete again vs both Black Sea and EU origins, as long as futures don’t rally to much, which is the problem that has plagued wheat, no sustainable upside stories yet.
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Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
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