E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6253.75, up 30.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22,893.25, up 1411.75

It is the start of the third quarter and the back half of the year. The S&P gained 5.7% in the first half, and the QQQ gained 8.1%, just shy of Blue Line Capital’s unofficial gain of 11.5% (finalized in the coming days). Some may consider this a hated rally, one where investors are still under-positioned, as evidenced by the relentless grind higher and swift rebounds from any pullback; a case in point is the period from late Friday through yesterday. That said, we approach this turn of the calendar with the realization that on one hand, these indices are likely to melt higher into the autumn, something I coined in May, on the CNBC Halftime Report as “party like its 2019”, but on the other hand, when wearing your trader hat, those quick pullbacks are going to be where the opportunity is found.

Final June SPGI Manufacturing PMI is due at 8:45 am CT, and the more closely watched ISM report is due at 9:00 am.

There is no reason to adjust our levels from yesterday; all are detailed below. However, we have adjusted our Bullish bias to Neutral/Bullish in the near term. The E-mini S&P still has rare major four-star resistance aligned with its September contract high, and a level it could not clear yesterday, at 6278.75-6285. We have merely widened out our Pivot and point of balance. More importantly, first support continues to hold and its those supports that will help define the immediacy of the next leg with major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at…

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