Ag Market Commentary

Going into the weekend, corn futures ended the Friday session 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. Sept futures were down the most, and ended the week 2.6% lower. The 5-day QPF shows rain through the weekend into early next week in MO and in MN. In MO a system is forecasted to bring up to 1.5” accumulated across the state, and along the MN/WI border NOAA forecasts up to 3” accumulated. From CFTC’s weekly update, managed money was 179,820 contracts net short on August 4. That was 29,540 contracts more net short wk/wk with an 11% increase to OI. China sold 3.992 MMT of corn from state reserves this week, and the average selling price was 2,005 yuan/MT (~ $7.31/bu).

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.07 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.20 3/4, down 3 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.32 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.41 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month soybean futures closed 9 to 10 1/2 cents lower on Friday. For Sept that added to the weekly loss, which was 2.75% from Fri to Fri. Meal and oil futures were also lower with $1.20/ton and 0.37 cents/lb losses in Sept respectively. Wk/wk Sept meal was $9.20/ton weaker and Sept oil was 38 points stronger. USDA announced a large export sale of 456,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. For the week, China has booked a known 864,000 MT; and the total new crop bean sales announced this week was 1.116 MMT (as 252k were also sold to unknown destinations). The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money was 44,219 contracts net long on August 4. That was a 29% reduction to the net position wk/wk via long liquidation. The commercials took some of those longs reducing their net short to 187,971 contracts. Soymeal specs were 20,985 contracts net short on August 4. In bean oil, spec funds added 11,863 new longs and increased the net long position 10,784 contracts wk/wk to 48,333.

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.70 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.65 3/4, down 9 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.67 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $8.74, down 10 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $280.00, down $0.70

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.35, down $0.17

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday wheat trading added to the downside for domestic wheat futures. SRW wheat closed 3 1/4 to 5 3/4 cents lower on the day, which for Sept contracts pushed them 35 3/4 cents lower from Friday to Friday. HRW futures were down 3/4 to 1 3/4 cents on the day, which for Sept was a 27 cent drop on the week. MGE wheat fared better wk/wk, as Sept dropped 3.79%. The CoT report showed managed money OI grew 4% wk/wk in SRW wheat. The additional players mostly canceled out as the spec fund net position was 1,178 contracts long. There were new sellers in KC wheat, pushing managed money’s net position to 25,811 contracts short. In HRS futures, managed money was 22k contracts net short on August 4. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows the average estimate for US wheat production is 1.832 bbu, with 1.218 bbu winter wheat. The average estimate for World wheat stocks is ~314.7 MMT.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.95 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.15 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.94 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month fat cattle futures traded 22 to 87 cents lower on the day. August contracts gained 17 cents ahead of expiration. August options expired today, with the underlying futures trading until the 31st. Feeder cattle futures gave back midday gains and ended the day down by 15 to 75 cents. The August 6 CME Feeder Cattle index was $141.92, which was another $1.13 higher. USDA reported limited cash sales activity in the north from $100 to $102 on Friday. Northern dressed deals were $162 to $164 on Friday. The bulk of the cash sales this week were $100, with some higher in the North and WCB. Dressed sales this week were mostly $163. The weekly CoT update showed cattle spec funds were 38,179 contracts net long on August 4. That was 4,557 contracts more long. In feeders, managed money was 1,159 contracts more net long to 6,612 contracts. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger on Friday, with an 81 cent bump in Choice and a 74 cent increase for Select. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter for the week through Saturday at 633,000 head. That was 5k below last week and down 14k yr/yr.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $102.800, up $0.175,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $106.450, down $0.525,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $110.075, down $0.875,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.725, down $0.750

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.125, down $0.750

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.400, down $0.375

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At the closing bell on Friday, lean hog futures were $0.15 to $1.77 higher, with triple digit gains for the 2020 expiry contracts. The triple digit gain for Oct, pushed the contract $1.35 above last Friday’s close. The CME Lean Hog index was $52.78 on Aug 4, after pulling back 14 cents. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Friday was 17 cents stronger to $38.11. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up $1.13 on Friday to $71.93. The weekly update from CFTC showed lean hog spec traders were 2,850 contracts more net long to 13,571 on August 4. That came via net new buying. USDA’s estimate for the week’s FI hog slaughter is 2.534 million head through Saturday. That is up 184,000 head yr/yr on another strong Saturday kill. YTD slaughter is running 1% higher yr/yr with 77.087 million head so far.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $51.000, up $1.250,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $50.975, up $1.775

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $52.925, up $1.425

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Pre-weekend profit taking left front month cotton 183 to 253 points lower. The hard selling on Friday left Dec futures 30 points below last Friday’s close, erasing a week of gains. In USDA’s Weekly Cotton Market Review, the average spot price for cotton on the week ending Aug 6 was 59.28 cents/lb. That was 2.55 cents higher wk/wk, with a full range of 58.01 c/lb to 59.77. the Commitment of Traders report with data from the week ending August 4, showed cotton spec traders were 31,335 contracts net long. That was an increase of 5,700 wk/wk from short covering. Sales reported on The Seam through Thursday were 55,649 bales at a wtd av price of 57.3 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was 70.85 cents/lb on Aug 6, a 50 point bump. The updated AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb. The week’s new LDP is 2.56 cents/lb.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 61.88, down 253 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 62.36, down 249 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 63.19, down 230 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 63.87, down 202 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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